2022 is just getting started – and thanks to the Omicron variant, it’s already giving us flashbacks of the past. The gloomy headlines might make you wonder where the economic recovery is headed. We’re in a cautiously optimistic mood this week, so let’s call it two steps forward, one step back.

It’s a new year on the calendar and the one-year anniversary of MainStreet Macro. We launched this blog with a proclamation that Main Street, not Wall Street, drives the economy. Main Street also determines the strength and duration of job recoveries and losses. A year in, how’s it going? The recovery taking shape has been as unpredictable as the events that brought us here. But we’re more certain than ever that each of us – workers, consumers, employers – plays a leading role in our own economic future. So, to kick off the new year, let’s look at three ways we’re all economists.

A new year usually signals new beginnings for people and, by extension, the businesses they sustain. While 2022 will carry forward some themes from 2021, new economic trends will redirect the path ahead. Where will that new path lead us? Here’s what we need to know before we can answer that question.

It's official. The word “transitory” has been eliminated from the English language. Just joking, obviously. But it has been removed from the official Federal Reserve description of inflation, confirmation that rising prices are going to be with us for a while. That got us thinking. When it comes to the Main Street economy these days, what changes are no longer transitory, but permanent? Here are three ways to answer that question.

Shopping becomes the national pastime at this time of year. In the weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas, spending by holiday gift-buyers accounts for nearly a third of the year’s retail sales. And the National Federation of Retail projects that this season could be retail’s biggest ever, with sales rising as much as 10% from last year to hit nearly $860 billion. That’s a lot of ugly reindeer sweaters. How is that even possible? As we’ve discussed before, the big three of inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain bottlenecks have made shopping more expensive. But higher prices don’t necessarily curb spending. In fact, it might increase it. You read that right. Here’s why the big three are triggering big spending on Main Street – and one big reason to be worried about it.

Over the last six months, labor shortages have been a hot topic for big and small employers alike. But there’s one job where shortages have been particularly challenging for Main Street families – school bus drivers. A lack of drivers has forced some school districts to cut routes, leaving parents to scramble to get their kids to school. And three months into the school year, the bus driver shortage hasn’t let up.We analyzed anonymized ADP data on bus drivers to find out what was going on before the pandemic and what’s happened since. Here’s what our research found.

ADPRI kicked off 2021 with data that showed a global workforce in flux. Three in four workers in our survey said they had changed, or planned to change, how or where they live. Since then, we’ve seen tremendous upheaval in the labor market. In the U.S., companies are scrambling to hire and job openings are near record highs. But workers who quit in record numbers have been slow to return, and the labor market is still 5 million people smaller than it was before the pandemic. Here’s the cool part: There’s a wealth of new data to mine. In 2022, data will be more important than ever for employers navigating the new, dynamic workforce and evolving business landscape. With data in mind, here’s what’s in and what’s out for workforce trends in the coming year.

While you were worrying about labor, supply chains, and inflation, you might have missed the news that U.S. economic growth slowed from July through September to just 2%. That’s below even the tortoise-like pace that defined growth in the decade before the pandemic. It’s also a far cry from the sonic 6.7% growth we saw in the second quarter of this year. The delta-variant was behind the economic downshift, as another uptick in cases limited our rebound. Now, with viral outbreaks re-contained, the outlook for GDP in the final three months of 2021 will hinge on Main Street’s ability to navigate the big three: Hiring bottlenecks, inflation, and supply shortages.