FEATURED POST
September 25, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Chasing Growth
This week, in the absence of a video, I’d like to set a scene with words. Imagine you’re a hero, tracking a villain dead-set on mayhem. The fate of the economy hangs on your every move.
Fraught with more tension than The Dark Knight, central banks around the world have been doing just that, turning their laser sights on interest rates as they try to chase down high inflation. Every decision carries high stakes, with the threat of a slowing economy menacing at every turn. It’s a fact that many economies don’t just fall into recession; they’re driven there by central banks that hike rates too aggressively.
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MainStreet Macro: What happens when the best choice isn’t available? (Asking for a friend)
They say a dog is a man’s best friend, but let’s be real: Sometimes dogs will settle for second best. It’s that way with the economy, too. Central banks are the economy’s best friends for now, but for how long?
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MainStreet Macro: Is the Fed ready for a running play?
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Last week brought fresh job data from the ADP Research Institute and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and another rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Football season is in full swing, too, so here’s some color analysis of the game we’re all watching: Team Fed v. Team Inflation.
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MainStreet Macro: Time well spent
.Something happened last quarter that most economy watchers missed. Labor productivity as measured by output per worker dropped like a rock. In the first quarter of this year, U.S. labor force time was not well spent. Productivity fell by 7.3 percent, the biggest drop since 1947. People worked 2.3 percent more hours and produced 5.4 percent less output.
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MainStreet Macro: Are we or aren’t we? The three Ds of recessions, and how to prepare
Are we in a recession? Maybe, maybe not. What we know for sure is that the economy is running hot this summer – and not just because of the temperatures. Today we explain how downturns are measured, why this one is unique, and what you can do to prepare.
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MainStreet Macro: The New World of Inflation
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
The Federal Reserve met last week and raised short term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point. That’s the biggest rate hike since 1994. At that time year-over-year CPI inflation was just shy of 3 percent gas prices were around a $1 a gallon and house price growth was up 2.5 percent from the previous year.
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MainStreet Macro: Missing Workers: Hiring in a Tight Job Market
Summer usually signals the start of theme park season, when adventure-seekers line up for the adrenaline rush of their favorite roller coaster and its ups and downs.
Labor market watchers can relate to those ups and downs – maybe too much, lately. It’s clear that employers, workers and jobseekers are more than ready for some stability.
The labor market’s high-speed airtime cost more than 19 million workers their jobs at the beginning of the pandemic. Since then, we’ve recovered, but that ride has been bumpy and uneven.
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MainStreet Macro: What are small businesses telling us about inflation?
I spend a lot of time talking about small employers because they punch above their weight when it comes to the economy. Companies with fewer than 500 employees created two-thirds of net new jobs leading into the pandemic, and they led the recovery afterward. Each quarter, we at the ADP Research Institute survey our small company clients to gather their insight on the business landscape. This quarter, they wanted to talk about the macroeconomy and – no surprise -- inflation. Here are three things clients are telling us.
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MainStreet Macro: Globalization: The Promise, Perils, and Possibilities
Last week I joined the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos, Switzerland. After a two-year hiatus from in-person events, world leaders, CEOs, international investors, and nonprofits reconvened at a time of great risk to global growth. This week, on the occasion of the Davos meetings, I’ll review the promise, the perils and the possibilities of globalization from the perspective of Main Street.
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