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September 10, 2024
Wage garnishments were on the rise. Then the pandemic hit.
Wage garnishments have been falling, and half of that trend is due to a drop in student loan debt garnishments.
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August 12, 2024
Main Street Macro: Wall Street threw a tantrum, but Main Street carried on
The deep sell-off that gripped Wall Street two weeks ago was short-lived. The volatility was triggered by a Bank of Japan rate increase that drove up the yen and rattled global markets. In the U.S., weaker-than-expected jobs data piled on, stoking fears of a recession and extending the market downturn.
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August 5, 2024
Main Street Macro: It’s too soon to talk about a hard landing
In the days leading up to last week’s July jobs reports, positive GDP and inflation news had boosted investor confidence that a soft landing of the U.S. economy was not only achievable, but also close at hand.
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July 29, 2024
Main Street Macro: Watching for signs of a rate cut? Keep an eye on these data sets
Sometimes the numbers speak for themselves. And for a data-driven Federal Reserve, this week’s cacophony of labor market releases will help shape the timing and duration of future rate cuts.
As such, economists and market watchers will be paying close attention to nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings when they’re released Friday. But there’s much more to this job market than these headline releases. To know what’s really going on in hiring, here are three other data sets worth watching.
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July 22, 2024
Main Street Macro: The next Fed rate cut might disappoint. Here’s why.
The recent slowdown in inflation has left market watchers more confident that Federal Reserve policymakers will cut interest rates at least once this year. What’s harder to predict is how those rate cuts might affect the economy.
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March 4, 2024
Main Street Macro: What non-economists get wrong
Economists sometimes get their forecasts wrong. First, we say inflation will be transitory. Then we say there will be a soft – no, wait! – a hard landing. A recession! Or maybe, definitely, a soft landing.
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February 26, 2024
Main Street Macro: The shrinking work week
Are you working fewer hours now than you did before the pandemic? If the answer is yes, you have a lot of company.
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February 20, 2024
Main Street Macro: Spring means homebuyers—and a big test of inflation
This year, the spring housing market will be watched closely by more than just would-be buyers. Investors, economists, and monetary policymakers also are eying listings in both the inventory-starved for-sale market and the rental market. Here are three reasons why.
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February 12, 2024
Main Street Macro: Normal? What’s that?
After last month’s blockbuster government jobs report, I’ve been looking for signs of a normal economy. But as economists and market watchers talk of a “new normal” and “normalization,” I’ve been wondering just what a normal economy is.
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