People are working less. Who and why? The ADP Research Institute’s Data Lab has the answer behind this new trend.

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February 26, 2024

MainStreet Macro: The shrinking work week

Are you working fewer hours now than you did before the pandemic? If the answer is yes, you have a lot of company.
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February 20, 2024

MainStreet Macro: Spring means homebuyers—and a big test of inflation

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

This year, the spring housing market will be watched closely by more than just would-be buyers. Investors, economists, and monetary policymakers also are eying listings in both the inventory-starved for-sale market and the rental market. Here are three reasons why.
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February 12, 2024

MainStreet Macro: Normal? What’s that?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

After last month’s blockbuster government jobs report, I’ve been looking for signs of a normal economy. But as economists and market watchers talk of a “new normal” and “normalization,” I’ve been wondering just what a normal economy is.
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October 23, 2023

MainStreet Macro: That new-hire glow is fading

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.Liv Wang

Job-switching is looking a lot less lucrative these days. The pay premium new hires commanded during the pandemic has been falling steadily for more than a year. In this week’s MainStreet Macro, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson and ADPRI senior data scientist Liv Wang look at shrinking new hire pay.
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September 18, 2023

MainStreet Macro: What happens when the best choice isn’t available? (Asking for a friend)

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

They say a dog is a man’s best friend, but let’s be real: Sometimes dogs will settle for second best. It’s that way with the economy, too. Central banks are the economy’s best friends for now, but for how long?
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November 7, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Is the Fed ready for a running play?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Last week brought fresh job data from the ADP Research Institute and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and another rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Football season is in full swing, too, so here’s some color analysis of the game we’re all watching: Team Fed v. Team Inflation.
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August 8, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Time well spent

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

.Something happened last quarter that most economy watchers missed. Labor productivity as measured by output per worker dropped like a rock. In the first quarter of this year, U.S. labor force time was not well spent. Productivity fell by 7.3 percent, the biggest drop since 1947. People worked 2.3 percent more hours and produced 5.4 percent less output.
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August 1, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Are we or aren’t we? The three Ds of recessions, and how to prepare

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Are we in a recession? Maybe, maybe not. What we know for sure is that the economy is running hot this summer – and not just because of the temperatures. Today we explain how downturns are measured, why this one is unique, and what you can do to prepare.
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