The price of oil, like most things, is determined by supply and demand. But oil is unique in how its prices are set and how they can affect the economy. Today, we drill down on three key features of oil and what rising prices mean for Main Street – and what Main Street’s reaction might mean for the global economy.

While markets are reacting in real time to the recent developments in Russia and Ukraine, the effect of its uncertainty on the Main Street is tougher to discern. Closer to home, the Federal Reserve is expected to act next month to begin reining in inflation. That means rising interest rates and more uncertainty are on the horizon. So today we’re asking this question: Are consumers still all right? There are three reasons to think they are.

People love the changing seasons. Whether it’s a snowy winter or a summer day at the beach, a lot of folks have favorite times of year that they know they can look forward to. The job market, too, is subject to seasonal adjustments. With all the change in the air right now, today we’ll examine the seasons of economic change.

Whether you started this week with the Super Bowl or Valentine’s Day romance – or both -- chances are that restaurant food, be it wings or a romantic dinner, was a big part of your plans. This week we take a look at the restaurant sector. It’s been a crucial part of the jobs recovery and a barometer of consumer spending and health during the pandemic.

Job numbers for January delivered a big and pleasant surprise last week. Economists expected a dour report after omicron cases surged at the beginning of the year. The thought was that an increased number of workers taking unpaid leave and forgoing paychecks would show up as job losses. The government release defied those expectations, reporting 467,000 jobs created in January. The upshot is that the numbers point to strength in the 2022 labor market. With hiring up, let’s take a look at a key structure of the job market, the hiring funnel.

Running a small business is not for the faint of heart, especially as the economy continues to swerve, pivot, and switch gears at a dizzying clip. This week, we reveal new insights from research on the changing small business landscape. Since May, ADP has been surveying about 2000 small employers every three months to find out what’s driving them – and what’s driving them crazy. They’ve had plenty to say. Here are the three big takeaways you need to know.

It’s been called the Great Resignation, the Great Reshuffle, and the Great Reassessment. But for some workers and the companies trying to hire or retain them, things don’t feel so great. A record 4.5 million workers in the U.S. quit their jobs in November of last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Companies are struggling to find and hire people. And the competitive market and rising inflation have employers puzzling over how to fairly compensate both new hires and their legacy employees. For many workers, wages are a determining factor in the decision whether to stay or go. Employers are figuring out whether they should pay to retain talent and, if so, how much. With these questions in mind, the ADP Research Institute analyzed the wages of 18 million workers during the last three months of 2021. Here’s what we found.

It feels like everything has been constantly changing over the past two years. Like the houseguests who overstay their welcome, we just want it to go away. But it might be good that we’ve all gotten accustomed to change, because more is coming in the months ahead in the form of higher prices and higher interest rates. This week, we explain the drivers of – and reaction to – inflation and how they’re putting the U.S. economy in a precarious position, at least in the short term.