MainStreet Macro

Last week brought fresh job data from the ADP Research Institute and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and another rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Football season is in full swing, too, so here’s some color analysis of the game we’re all watching: Team Fed v. Team Inflation.

When was the last time you took a walk down a real Main Street, the commercial hub of any small town or city? I recently had a chance to do just that with Kai Ryssdal, host of the “Marketplace” broadcast on American Public Media. Kai and I took a tour of Elmwood Avenue, a happening strip of local businesses in central Buffalo. Why Buffalo? Kai is a New York Giants fan, so it had nothing to do with the Bills’ near-flawless season. No, we headed to Buffalo because ADP Research Institute data recently showed that wages for lower-paid workers in the city had skyrocketed, jumping 40 percent from 2019 to 2021. Last year, for the first time, low-end salaries grew more rapidly in America’s most affordable cities than anywhere else.

The application process has begun! No, not for college admission, for student loan forgiveness. Last week, the Biden administration opened the application process debt forgiveness, the first step in the president’s three-part plan to help low- to middle-income borrowers saddled with big tuition bills. There are no transcripts, standardized test scores, essays, or letters of recommendation required. Applicants for this program need to meet only one threshold: Debt holders must earn less than $125,000 a year in individual income or $250,000 in household income to be eligible. The payoff: up to $10,000 in debt forgiveness, or, for recipients of federal Pell Grants, which are distributed to students with financial need, up to $20,000.

I love coffee. It’s what I wake up for. I’d like to say that I spring out of bed to make breakfast for my sons, walk my dog Lavender, take an invigorating run, or even dig into economic data (my passion). The truth is, I wake up for coffee. As I assess events currently shaping the global economy, coffee has come up. Yes, it powers me through my workday, but coffee also is a window into the forces that are rocking our world. Here are three ways coffee is feeling the effects of the global economy.

Jobs week is one of my favorite times of the month, and these days the importance of employment data is even more pronounced. With inflation bearing down, U.S. job and wage reports provide the clearest signals available on whether hiring and pay are on pace to drive up the cost of goods and services even more. So without further ado, let’s take a walk through the jobs week that was.

Yes, a normal day is still about 24 hours. But scientists say that Earth has been spinning faster, shaving milliseconds off a typical day. There’s evidence, in fact, that this year the planet is moving faster than it did in 2021 or 2020. If that’s not enough speed for you, there’s another acceleration under way, one that’s affecting the frequency of data

The Federal Reserve last week took another aggressive whack at too-high inflation, raising its benchmark interest rate by three-fourths of a percentage point. It’s the third time in a row the Fed has taken such a big step, and indications are it won’t be the last. Central bank policymakers have telegraphed that they plan to raise the federal funds rate a by a combined 1.25 per percentage points in their last two meetings of 2022.