FEATURED POST
September 25, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Chasing Growth
This week, in the absence of a video, I’d like to set a scene with words. Imagine you’re a hero, tracking a villain dead-set on mayhem. The fate of the economy hangs on your every move.
Fraught with more tension than The Dark Knight, central banks around the world have been doing just that, turning their laser sights on interest rates as they try to chase down high inflation. Every decision carries high stakes, with the threat of a slowing economy menacing at every turn. It’s a fact that many economies don’t just fall into recession; they’re driven there by central banks that hike rates too aggressively.
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MainStreet Macro: Keeping an eye on the ball
I’m not a great golfer. But in an effort to improve my game, I took a lesson and was struck (no pun intended) by how golf can be applied to the economy. One thing I learned is to mark the ball. Some golfers look at the putter, others at the hole. But looking at the mark as you swing helps with alignment and focus.
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MainStreet Macro: People at Work: A three-year lookback
For the past three years, the ADP Research Institute has been talking to workers across the globe to learn about their on-the-job experiences before, during and after the pandemic. Last week we released our latest report in this series, our People at Work Survey.
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MainStreet Macro: The path between global and local growth
Last week my attention turned to my old stomping ground, Washington, D.C., where I worked for several years.
One of the city’s most closely watched spring events – after the National Cherry Blossom Festival – is the annual spring meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Central bankers, finance ministers, company executives, and academics from across the globe descend on D.C. to discuss front-burner economic and geopolitical issues.
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MainStreet Macro: March Jobs Data: A Return to Balance
Last week delivered a fresh round of jobs data for February and March. Today, we’ll catch up on the numbers and what they say about the current state of the labor market. All told, it’s mostly good news.
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MainStreet Macro: Taking the temperature of financial conditions
Where I live, in the Northeast, early spring can be unsettling. Warm, sunny hours can be followed by chilling rains, relentless wind, snow, or worse.
Like spring’s unpredictable weather, financial conditions can be volatile, as we witnessed last month.
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MainStreet Macro: The goods on goods
We all know by now that the labor market is tight. But it’s also fragmented, with different sectors responding differently to labor shortages and higher interest rates. As Main Street employers scout for workers, for example, big tech companies continue to announce big layoffs.
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MainStreet Macro: Off the clock
Whether they’re at the office, on site, or at home, the hours people put in at work are all important, to both them and their employers. Employers use the number of hours worked as a lever to control the quantity of output their employees deliver. And hours worked are a key input when it comes to analyzing the labor market. They’re a consequential determinant of wages, profits, inflation, and the productive power of the economy.
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MainStreet Macro: Unseasonable warmth
I live in the Northeast, where February has brought unseasonably warm weather. The mild temperature reminds me of the U.S. economy, which is much warmer than many economists and analysts expected it would be at this point in time.
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