Announcement

ADP Research Institute (ADPRI) and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the “Lab”) announced they will retool the ADP National Employment Report (NER) methodology to provide a more robust, high-frequency view of the labor market and trajectory of economic growth. In preparation for the changeover to the new report and methodology, ADPRI will pause issuing the current report and has targeted August 31, 2022, to reintroduce the ADP National Employment Report in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the “Lab”). We look forward to providing an even more comprehensive labor market analysis and will be in touch with additional details closer to the re-launch, later this summer.  For more information on this announcement, please visit here.

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June 27, 2022

MainStreet Macro: A Penny Saved

Savings accounts were the unsung heroes of the pandemic recovery. The personal saving rate – the share of a person’s disposable income left after taxes and spending on necessities and everything else – soared to a record of almost 34 percent in April 2020. That means people saved 34 cents for every dollar earned in the early days of the pandemic.
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June 21, 2022

MainStreet Macro: The New World of Inflation

The Federal Reserve met last week and raised short term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point. That’s the biggest rate hike since 1994. At that time year-over-year CPI inflation was just shy of 3 percent gas prices were around a $1 a gallon and house price growth was up 2.5 percent from the previous year.
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June 13, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Missing Workers: Hiring in a Tight Job Market

Summer usually signals the start of theme park season, when adventure-seekers line up for the adrenaline rush of their favorite roller coaster and its ups and downs. Labor market watchers can relate to those ups and downs – maybe too much, lately. It’s clear that employers, workers and jobseekers are more than ready for some stability. The labor market’s high-speed airtime cost more than 19 million workers their jobs at the beginning of the pandemic. Since then, we’ve recovered, but that ride has been bumpy and uneven.
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June 6, 2022

MainStreet Macro: What are small businesses telling us about inflation?

I spend a lot of time talking about small employers because they punch above their weight when it comes to the economy. Companies with fewer than 500 employees created two-thirds of net new jobs leading into the pandemic, and they led the recovery afterward. Each quarter, we at the ADP Research Institute survey our small company clients to gather their insight on the business landscape. This quarter, they wanted to talk about the macroeconomy and – no surprise -- inflation. Here are three things clients are telling us.
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May 31, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Globalization: The Promise, Perils, and Possibilities

Last week I joined the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos, Switzerland. After a two-year hiatus from in-person events, world leaders, CEOs, international investors, and nonprofits reconvened at a time of great risk to global growth. This week, on the occasion of the Davos meetings, I’ll review the promise, the perils and the possibilities of globalization from the perspective of Main Street.
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May 23, 2022

MainStreet Macro: How data is transforming Main Street

Last week I spoke at the World Data Summit in Amsterdam, a conference at which experts from across the globe met to discuss the most pressing data issues of our time. As the name suggests, data is fast becoming the universal language of business. For that reason, in this week’s blog I thought we’d talk about why data is important to Main Street.
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May 16, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Peak or Plateau?

One of my family’s favorite pastimes is playing board games. Our faves include chess (which my teenage boys dominate), Scrabble (my husband’s the GOAT on this one) and Monopoly (the most frequent victor is me, obviously). But not all games are quite so fun. My least favorite, when it comes to the economy, are guessing games. Wall Street right now is in the midst of a guessing game on key economic data. I call this game “peak or plateau”. This week, we examine three elements of the economy to determine if we’re at a peak or a plateau.
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May 9, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Makin’ it look easy

The truly great always make it look easy, don’t they? Be it Meryl Streep or Michael Jordan – no matter how hard, no matter what the feat – they make it look so easy. The Fed is trying to do something now that’s really hard: Rein in inflation without choking growth. Last week, the central bank announced its intention to raise short-term interest rates by a half percentage point. In this week’s blog we share three things to keep in mind as the Fed tries to pull off one of the trickiest maneuvers in modern monetary history.
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