FEATURED POST
May 13, 2025
High-frequency smoke signals
The economy’s smoke signals are sending a confusing message about its health.
Growth slowed by 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2025. Yet in April, the economy produced a robust 177,000 jobs. Unemployment is steady, but in the first quarter, labor productivity contracted for the first time in three years. The pace of inflation, though slower than it was, is stickier than economists would like.
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April 15, 2025
Employee sentiment index rose in April
by Mary Hayes, Ph.D. • Jared Northup
The ADP Research Employee Motivation and Commitment Index, which tracks how people think and feel about their jobs, gained two points in April to return to its series high.
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February 18, 2025
Employee sentiment rebounded in February
by Mary Hayes, Ph.D. • Jared Northup
Employee sentiment rebounded in February, gaining 5 points to match a record high set in July 2024. Two sectors—retail and wholesale trade, and information—hit new record highs.
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November 14, 2023
Employers and student debt
Student loan payments are back. Here’s why employers need to pay attention.
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January 30, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Nela’s Recession Playbook
The biggest economic debate of 2023 is whether the U.S. is heading toward a recession. And the reason it’s being debated is because the data shows evidence for both sides.
In the no-recession camp, the economy grew by 2.9 percent last quarter, besting analysts estimates, and inflation slowed for the second straight month in December. And while we’ve seen big headlines on corporate layoffs, these job losses aren’t yet reflected in the data. Jobless claims for the first three weeks of January were near record lows.
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January 23, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Shaking off the gloom in Davos
The annual World Economic Forum gathering in the mountainside retreat of Davos, Switzerland, is most commonly described with a single word: elite. After attending the meetings last week, I’d like to offer three more words that perhaps more constructively capture the ethos of Davos this year: Optimism, dealmaking, and hope.
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January 17, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Minimum wages are rising. But is it enough?
Last week, data for December showed that the rate of inflation had fallen to 6.5 percent from 7.1 percent a year earlier. The decline was driven mainly by a steep drop in gas prices.
While overall inflation might (thankfully) be losing steam, workers, especially those with smaller paychecks, continue to suffer an erosion of the pay gains they reaped during 2022’s tight labor market.
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