FEATURED POST
May 20, 2025
Boomerang hiring makes a comeback
The 2025 job market has been remarkably steady. Initial jobless claims are near historical lows, the unemployment rate is hovering just above 4 percent, and fewer people are quitting their jobs than before the pandemic.
The U.S. workforce is largely staying put, but one set of employees is on the move, and they’re returning to their previous employers.
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September 30, 2024
Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?
Last week’s economic data delivered a lot of good news. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 3 percent pace in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs, fell to 218,000, the lowest level since May.
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September 23, 2024
Main Street Macro: What’s debt got to do with it?
The Federal Reserve’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point won’t likely be felt immediately by its primary targets, employers, and households.
Yes, the Fed has a mandate to promote full employment and price stability, but in practice it takes a long time for rate cuts to translate into more hiring and spending on Main Street.
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September 16, 2024
Main Street Macro: There’s still no foregone conclusion on inflation. Here’s why
It would be easy to ignore the economic news this week and pay attention only to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. I caution you: Don’t.
Even with a Fed meeting on the calendar, there will be much more important data news to watch. That’s because we still don’t know with certainty the future path ...
September 9, 2024
Main Street Macro: The landing: It’s not how, it’s where
For the last two years, economists and market strategists have been intensely engaged in a debate over this question: Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard or soft landing?
The how is one thing, but much less attention has been paid to where the economy will land. But after a week of weaker-than-expected job data, the economy’s destination is coming into focus.
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August 19, 2024
Main Street Macro: Casting for bigger fish in Jackson Hole
As they gather in scenic Jackson Hole this week, Fed policymakers will be casting for big fish. The question on the agenda won’t be to cut or not to cut. It will be whether interest rate policy is an effective economic tool. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson explains why this year’s agenda is so important in this week’s Main Street Macro.
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August 12, 2024
Main Street Macro: Wall Street threw a tantrum, but Main Street carried on
The deep sell-off that gripped Wall Street two weeks ago was short-lived. The volatility was triggered by a Bank of Japan rate increase that drove up the yen and rattled global markets. In the U.S., weaker-than-expected jobs data piled on, stoking fears of a recession and extending the market downturn.
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August 5, 2024
Main Street Macro: It’s too soon to talk about a hard landing
In the days leading up to last week’s July jobs reports, positive GDP and inflation news had boosted investor confidence that a soft landing of the U.S. economy was not only achievable, but also close at hand.
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July 29, 2024
Main Street Macro: Watching for signs of a rate cut? Keep an eye on these data sets
Sometimes the numbers speak for themselves. And for a data-driven Federal Reserve, this week’s cacophony of labor market releases will help shape the timing and duration of future rate cuts.
As such, economists and market watchers will be paying close attention to nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings when they’re released Friday. But there’s much more to this job market than these headline releases. To know what’s really going on in hiring, here are three other data sets worth watching.
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