Announcement

ADP Research Institute (ADPRI) and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the “Lab”) announced they will retool the ADP National Employment Report (NER) methodology to provide a more robust, high-frequency view of the labor market and trajectory of economic growth. In preparation for the changeover to the new report and methodology, ADPRI will pause issuing the current report and has targeted August 31, 2022, to reintroduce the ADP National Employment Report in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the “Lab”). We look forward to providing an even more comprehensive labor market analysis and will be in touch with additional details closer to the re-launch, later this summer.  For more information on this announcement, please visit here.

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June 27, 2022

MainStreet Macro: A Penny Saved

Savings accounts were the unsung heroes of the pandemic recovery. The personal saving rate – the share of a person’s disposable income left after taxes and spending on necessities and everything else – soared to a record of almost 34 percent in April 2020. That means people saved 34 cents for every dollar earned in the early days of the pandemic.
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May 2, 2022

MainStreet Macro: The pandemic’s labor legacy

This week, all eyes will be on new labor market data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics shares its latest on the great resignation and job openings. On Wednesday, the ADP Research Institute offers the first read on April employment numbers, and official government jobs data is due Friday. Hirings, job openings and quits provide a snapshot of the labor market. But like other snapshots of life, like holiday photos, vacations or the kids’ sporting events, they don’t tell the whole story. The pandemic has affected more than just monthly hiring – the changes we’re living through now are likely to persist well into the future. Here are three enduring changes wrought by the pandemic.
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April 25, 2022

MainStreet Macro: People at Work-A Global Workforce View

For the third year in a row, the ADP Research Institute surveyed 30,000 workers in 17 countries to understand their views on the workplace. The negative effects of the pandemic still linger, and the workforce is evolving as it adopts new priorities
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April 18, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Reaction to Inflation

Inflation rose to 8.5 percent in March, reaching a fresh 40-year high. Not only that, a measure of what wholesalers pay for goods, before they get to store shelves, rose by 11.2 percent. That’s the biggest jump on record, and it means there could be more pain in store for consumers. The breakneck pace of inflation didn’t rankle markets – stock prices were flat after last week’s reports, with analysts positing that the March data could be the peak for price increases. But Main Street is likely to react differently. Here are three ways Main Street is reacting to high inflation.
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April 11, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Trade’s Big Week

We get a flood of new data on the state of the economy this week, including the latest imprint on an important but oft-ignored driver of the economy – global trade. Here are three reasons why global trade matters for Main Street.
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April 4, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Health Check

Last week, the government released data showing that the economy created 431,000 jobs in March. It was hard to find something not to like about this report – job gains were strong and broad-based. But if you’re looking for areas still in need of improvement (and let’s face it, as an economist that’s kind of my job), turn to the labor force participation rate. Today, we give the jobs market a check-up to see if it's really as healthy as it seems.
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March 28, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Next Up-The Great Realignment

It's been a jobs recovery like no other. As the nation emerges from the darkness of the pandemic and moves closer to closing the coronavirus-induced employment gap, many of us are wondering what happens next. This week, we come to you by video to explain the workforce and economic influences that will define the great alignment.
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March 21, 2022

MainStreet Macro: The Global Footprint of U.S. Debt

I began my career as a PhD economist in the housing market, or to be more precise the mortgage market. Back then, I thought the two most local things you could buy were a haircut and a house. Well, I got it half right. While haircuts will always be local, how homes are financed in America is definitely not. People look to the Federal Reserve for a read on interest rates, but it’s not the only entity that determines the cost of U.S. mortgages and other borrowing. Buyers and sellers of U.S. debt both here and around the world also play important roles. Today, we look at the global footprint of the U.S. bond market and how it lands squarely on Main Street.
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March 14, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Why the Fed is Not a Bread Maker

One of my favorite things to do on weekends is make bread. It’s like magic. Measure the ingredients, toss them into the bread maker, close the lid, and press start. Three hours later, there you have it – a perfect loaf of warm bread. In life, alas, things aren’t as easy or predictable. That’s especially true when it comes to monetary policy. As Fed governors prepare to meet Tuesday to figure out a recipe for fighting inflation, they know that their own policies can behave very differently depending on market conditions. Here are three things the Fed will be watching.
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