FEATURED POST
June 10, 2025
The big deal about small employers
Last week, ADP data showed that employers with fewer than 50 workers shed a large number of jobs—13,000—in May. While one month doesn’t make a trend, it does remind us of the big role small employers play in our economy. So, when it comes to the macroeconomy, what’s the big deal with small employers? Here are three reasons small businesses have an outsized impact on the U.S. labor market.
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October 14, 2024
Helene, Milton, and the economy: What to expect
Hurricane Helene last month delivered a 600-mile path of destruction through six states—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia—and Hurricane Milton followed with a second blow last week across central Florida. After September’s surprising boost in job gains delivered clarity on the strength of the U.S. economy, Helene and Milton are likely to influence economic data in the weeks and months ahead. Here’s what to watch.
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October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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September 30, 2024
Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?
Last week’s economic data delivered a lot of good news. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 3 percent pace in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs, fell to 218,000, the lowest level since May.
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September 23, 2024
Main Street Macro: What’s debt got to do with it?
The Federal Reserve’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point won’t likely be felt immediately by its primary targets, employers, and households.
Yes, the Fed has a mandate to promote full employment and price stability, but in practice it takes a long time for rate cuts to translate into more hiring and spending on Main Street.
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September 16, 2024
Main Street Macro: There’s still no foregone conclusion on inflation. Here’s why
It would be easy to ignore the economic news this week and pay attention only to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. I caution you: Don’t.
Even with a Fed meeting on the calendar, there will be much more important data news to watch. That’s because we still don’t know with certainty the future path ...
September 9, 2024
Main Street Macro: The landing: It’s not how, it’s where
For the last two years, economists and market strategists have been intensely engaged in a debate over this question: Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard or soft landing?
The how is one thing, but much less attention has been paid to where the economy will land. But after a week of weaker-than-expected job data, the economy’s destination is coming into focus.
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August 27, 2024
Gen Z prefers blue-collar jobs. Or does it?
by Sam Adieze • Ben Hanowell
College enrollment data suggests that Gen Z is moving toward the skilled trades. We took a look at the payroll data.
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July 1, 2024
Main Street Macro: Three job questions for the next six months
Over the past six months, the job market has proven to be the most consistently upbeat indicator of the U.S. economy. Hiring didn't surge like the U.S. deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office projects will increase by more than $400 billion to $1.9 trillion this year, the third-largest deficit on record, behind 2020 and 2021, when pandemic relief spending pushed it to a record high.
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