FEATURED POST
May 13, 2025
High-frequency smoke signals
The economy’s smoke signals are sending a confusing message about its health.
Growth slowed by 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2025. Yet in April, the economy produced a robust 177,000 jobs. Unemployment is steady, but in the first quarter, labor productivity contracted for the first time in three years. The pace of inflation, though slower than it was, is stickier than economists would like.
Read more
Subscribe to Data Lab
Stay up-to-date on the latest reports and trends.
Stay up to date with Data Lab
Please complete all fields.
Filter by:
February 12, 2024
Main Street Macro: Normal? What’s that?
After last month’s blockbuster government jobs report, I’ve been looking for signs of a normal economy. But as economists and market watchers talk of a “new normal” and “normalization,” I’ve been wondering just what a normal economy is.
Read more
October 23, 2023
Main Street Macro: That new-hire glow is fading
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D. • Liv Wang
Job-switching is looking a lot less lucrative these days. The pay premium new hires commanded during the pandemic has been falling steadily for more than a year. In this week’s MainStreet Macro, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson and ADPRI senior data scientist Liv Wang look at shrinking new hire pay.
Read more
September 18, 2023
Main Street Macro: What happens when the best choice isn’t available? (Asking for a friend)
They say a dog is a man’s best friend, but let’s be real: Sometimes dogs will settle for second best. It’s that way with the economy, too. Central banks are the economy’s best friends for now, but for how long?
Read more
November 7, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Is the Fed ready for a running play?
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Last week brought fresh job data from the ADP Research Institute and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and another rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Football season is in full swing, too, so here’s some color analysis of the game we’re all watching: Team Fed v. Team Inflation.
Read more
August 8, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Time well spent
.Something happened last quarter that most economy watchers missed. Labor productivity as measured by output per worker dropped like a rock. In the first quarter of this year, U.S. labor force time was not well spent. Productivity fell by 7.3 percent, the biggest drop since 1947. People worked 2.3 percent more hours and produced 5.4 percent less output.
Read more
August 1, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Are we or aren’t we? The three Ds of recessions, and how to prepare
Are we in a recession? Maybe, maybe not. What we know for sure is that the economy is running hot this summer – and not just because of the temperatures. Today we explain how downturns are measured, why this one is unique, and what you can do to prepare.
Read more
June 21, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The New World of Inflation
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
The Federal Reserve met last week and raised short term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point. That’s the biggest rate hike since 1994. At that time year-over-year CPI inflation was just shy of 3 percent gas prices were around a $1 a gallon and house price growth was up 2.5 percent from the previous year.
Read more
June 13, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Missing Workers: Hiring in a Tight Job Market
Summer usually signals the start of theme park season, when adventure-seekers line up for the adrenaline rush of their favorite roller coaster and its ups and downs.
Labor market watchers can relate to those ups and downs – maybe too much, lately. It’s clear that employers, workers and jobseekers are more than ready for some stability.
The labor market’s high-speed airtime cost more than 19 million workers their jobs at the beginning of the pandemic. Since then, we’ve recovered, but that ride has been bumpy and uneven.
Read more
