In the month of March, it’s hard to know which coat to wear. Will the weather be on the warm side or the cool side? That question also can be asked of the economy right now. As Main Street transitions from a pandemic-oppressed winter to a vaccine-liberated spring, is the economy running hot or cold?

This month, Main Street marks the one-year anniversary of the World Health Organization declaring the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, in a year that took our lives and the economy on a wild roller-coaster ride. In two short months, we went from the longest economic expansion in U.S. history to the most devastating downturn since the Great Depression. What a difference a year makes. March has brought us an economy on the verge of a reset as the vaccine rollout picks up steam and a $1.9 trillion relief package begins its work. Yet as the U.S. continues its climb to pre-pandemic GDP, the economy isn’t resetting to its pre-pandemic form. Things are different. As I said last week, the story of the economy’s evolution is still being written. Here are four structural changes likely to outlive the pandemic.

Oscar material, anyone? If you’ve been looking for a riveting drama, here it is. You’ve heard the big news by now: Job creation popped in February, blowing through economists’ expectations. Employers added 379,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, nearly doubling the consensus estimate. The monthly data isn’t a disappointment on its face, but let’s dig deeper. Even with the jump in hiring, the U.S. still has had nearly 10 million fewer jobs in February than it did a year ago, before the coronavirus took hold. The unemployment rate last month was 6.2 percent -- better, but likely understates the scarring in the labor markets.

This week on the Main Street Macro Blog we’re taking a figurative field trip to Wall Street and to a specific neighborhood on the Street called the Bond Market. While Wall Street is not the economy there are some instances when the actions and beliefs of stock and bond investors affect Main Street business. Last week was one of those times. Long term bond yields, the return investors receive from debt securities, have been creeping upwards, causing many of our Wall Street friends to catch the jitters. What’s also the fuss about? Here are four things Main Street should know about the recent rise in bond yields.

Shoppers on Main Street tell us a lot about the state of the broader economy. What you and I spend our hard-earned dollars on -- whether we save or invest, buy clothes or cars, spend Saturday nights chilling with Netflix or at a bar after a game -- all adds up to just how quickly the economy recovers.

The title of this blog, Main Street Macro, might be self-explanatory. What you don’t know is that I grew up on Main Street, in a smallish Indiana town. I have a direct and personal connection to what we talk about each week. Today, let’s talk about my old Main Street house and the millions of houses like it--those profoundly personal and sometimes sentimental investments that have a direct and outsized influence on the economy.

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow last week, signaling six more weeks of winter just as the Northeast was being blanketed with its strongest snowfall in five years. As an economist and professional forecaster, I’m impressed by the real-time confirmation of the groundhog’s prediction. Another prediction last week also is likely to hit its mark. The Congressional Budget Office forecast an economic rebound to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. It’s the latest in a string of analyses to show that one of the most severe recessions in U.S. history also likely will be one of the shortest.

Last week we reported that wages for U.S. workers grew 4.4%. On Main Street, that translates to about a buck and a quarter increase in average hourly take-home pay, to $30.19. It’s a much stronger increase than the historical average. Like other macro-level indicators, however, this headline wage number masks ongoing job market turbulence caused by COVID-19. To get a closer look, we turn to ADP data on wages, which draws information each month from approximately 250,000 companies and 18 million employees, about 15 percent of all U.S. private sector employees.